November 30, 2017 -- In light of several factors summarized below, MEDraysintell is downgrading its proton therapy market projection from 1,200 proton therapy treatment rooms that were expected to be operational in 2030 to 900. This still represents a 12% annual growth from 2017 to 2030 and the need to open an average of more than 50 PT treatment rooms every year from 2018 to 2030.

Originally MEDraysintell expected 2015 to become the starting point of a dynamic increase of the PT market following the large number of new orders reported worldwide during that year. This trend continued in early 2016 but slowed down from mid-2016 on with a persistent decline during 2017. The drop of new orders reached almost 70% compared to 2015. For the first eleven months of 2017 PT orders remained below the average number of orders recorded annually between 2006 and 2017. The highest level of orders was observed in 2015 with almost 50 treatment rooms ordered accounting for nearly US$ 1 billion. The lowest level was seen in 2008 with only five PT treatment rooms ordered. The trend in 2017 might improve somewhat if new PT orders are recorded before end of the year, however at this stage, it seems that 2015 appears to be an exceptional year and not the new norm expected by the industry.

Factors such as financial difficulties shown at several proton therapy centers in the recent past, has also affected the climate of the industry and has probably pushed certain potential investors to reconsider their priorities. In addition, apparent difficulties for a number of operational PT centers worldwide to recruit annually a sufficient number of patients are possibly also affecting the decision for building new PT centers. Furthermore, the US healthcare reforms are impacting new orders for large healthcare equipment, and the Chinese newly adopted five year plan resulted in delays for new orders from potentials customers.
2016 and 2017 particle therapy market sizes have been revised downward compared to the ones shown in the previous Edition of this PT report, mainly due to delays in the opening of several facilities and cancelation of some projects. In 2016 only 0.6% of the population that needed access to external radiotherapy was treated with proton therapy. Even with 900 treatment rooms in 2030, this will allow only 6-7% of this population to be able to receive proton therapy treatment.

However, with the growing clinical evidence regarding the efficacy of particle therapy that will progressively be used to treat a broader number of indications there is room for a further acceleration of the market especially if the industry brings the cost of equipment down.

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